Monday, April 23, 2007

Then there were four

The Cricket World Cup is now in its final week. A time we thought might never come, after a long and at times tideous two month campaign.

Nevertheless the business end of the cup is upon us as the world's eyes will focus on four - Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Sri Lanka. Probably the four most deserving teams to have made the finals after 48 matches, 16 teams over 50 days of cricket to determine the make-up of the finals mix.

Semi Final 1: New Zealand v. Sri Lanka

An expected bouncy wicket for the first semi final will play into the hands of two key bowlers. Bond, Shane Bond and Slinga Lasith Malinga will be looking to dominate the Sabina track.

New Zealand may choose in fact to bowl as they are keen chasers and if Shane Bond is on song, it could be devestating. Likewise, Lasith Malinga will be itching to get his hands on the ball, as he seems to have an edge over New Zealander's who struggle against the faster skidding ball.

In the past New Zealand batsmen have struggled against Malinga and Australian Brett Lee. Malinga has the back-up in Chaminda Vaas, one of the best bowlers in the modern game and of course Muttiah Muralidaran. This attack is formidable and ricals only the Australian bowling brigade.

New Zealand will rely heavily on Bond, but he can be assisted by Daniel Vettori and (if picked) Jayten Patel. I would be picking the two spinners because the New Zealander's faster bowlers are not as convincing.

Whether Matthew Mason, James Franklin or Mark Gillespe are picked, will be decided on Jacob Oram's fitness. Oram plays an integral role with both bat and ball and I see benefits to Mark Gillespe being the second bowler to Bond, but the selectors will probably go with Franklin.

The batting will also be crucial to the result with Sanath Jayasuriya keen to end his career on a high note and will be going all guns blazing. Kumar Sangakarra has had a quite tournament by his standards, which is a worrying sign as the finals may be his time.

Sri Lanka's stregth lies in its middle order with Mahela Jayawardene, Russell Arnold, Tillekeratne Dilshan and Chamara Silva. Silva is the one who impresses me most and looks a real star for the future.

New Zealand's batsmen could do anything. Hot one day, cold the next.

Stephen Fleming needs runs for his team to score runs and he will be looking for a positive start. Ricky Taylor, Craig McMillan, Scott Styris and Jacob Oram need to post fortys or half century's to be competitive.

Overall the star studded bowling attack and depth of batting should see Sri Lanka qualify for the grand final.

Semi Final 2: Australia v. South Africa

De ja vu? But what will the result be this time. Australia have the edge over South Africa, thrashing them in the earlier rounds of the competition.

Australia have stood head and shoulders above every team at this world cup, and not making the final would be a failure in the team's books. Ricky Ponting and Graeme Smith are the keys for mind both in their leadership and as batsmen, their teams rely on their skippers to have big games for their teams to succeed.

Ponting has the mental toughness, as a Captain, batsmen and big match player. His determination is unrivalled and he has the players to back his decissions.

Nevertheless South Africa have chased down 400 against Australia and won, so there will be some concern in the minds of the Australians.

Matthew Hayden is again key at the top of the order, scoring 580 runs with a highest score of 158 including four centuries in this years would cup at an average of 82.85. Ponting is not far behind him and Adam Gilchrist is still really to fire.

Australia's middle order looks solid with Michael Clarke's consistency, Andrew Symonds big hitting that can turn an innings on its head, Michael Hussey's unquestionable ability in the middle order and Shane Watson can also ignite some fireworks.

Suprisingly Nathan Bracken, Glen McGrath and Shaun Tait have not had to put the pads on once in this world cup, a testament to their top order.

The top class batting has been matched by impecable bowling. Glen McGrath will retire on top of his game.

Australia's fast bowler of the last decade has saved his best performances for the cup, becoming the leading wicket-taker with 22 wickets at 14 and he will leave the games as the highest world cup wicket-taker of all time.

McGrath has been backed up in his fast bowling trio by Shaun Tait. Despite going for a few runs , Tait can devistate attackes with his pace, bounce and skid and looks devestating in full flight. Likewise Nathan Bracken has been consistent and provides the variety in this trio, not allowing a batsmen to get settled.

Brad Hogg caps off the variety of this attack having a memorable world cup. Arguably Australia's best bowler of the tournament, Hogg has 19 wickets at 15.21.

Australia has the leading wicket-taker and run scorer. Interestingly 12 months ago Glen McGrath, Matthew Hayden and even Brad Hogg were not guranteed positions in Australia's one day team and today there are the key ingriedients to this team.

South Africa will depend on their top four to score the bulk of their runs. Graeme Smith needs to attack the quicker bowlers and A B de Villiers needs to follow his skipped.

De Villiers has struggled against the Australians. Jacques Kallis needs to stand up and be counted, score runs at a quicker rate than he usually does, likewise Herschelle Gibbs who can be a match winner.

South Africa have stregth in their middle order with Mark Boucher, Justin Kemp and Shaun Pollock.

The bowling is what lets South Africa down. Pollock is not the bowler he was and Makhaya Ntini has struggled to impact on the fast bowler friendly wickets.

Charl Langeveldt, Andre Nel or Andrew Hall could have that other position which should go to Nel who can get under the Australian's skin and offers more than the other options.

No quality front line spinner lets down the South Africans who crave a variety, change-up bowler. Their bowling is what lets down the Proteas as I see the game going the way of the Australians.

We will have to see what happenes this week but Australia should knock off the Proteas and meet Sri Lanka in the grand final. All will be revealed in 96 hours.

No comments: