Thursday, November 29, 2007

The New Political Landscape

In a few hours Australia will have a new opposition leader, whether it is Malcolm Turnbull or Brendan Nelson.

By the weekend Australia will have a new set of ministers and a Prime Minister ready to be sworn into Government.

The Australian political landscape is changing and for at least the next three years Mr Rudd will become the 26th Prime Minister of Australia with every chance of being re-elected.

You would have to assume that Rudd is there for at least two terms in office unless there is a catastrophe. Two new players in Rudd and either Nelson or Turnbull will be the two figure heads of Labor and Liberal in our nation.

The Liberal Party has been ‘cleaned out’ with John Howard, Peter Costello, Andrew Downer all either retiring or serving out their terms on the back bench. We are yet to hear from Phillip Ruddock but don’t expect the outgoing Attorney-General to remain in politics.

With change in the air, Kevin Rudd grabbed his opportunity in 2006 when the Australian people were starting to seek a new start. Costello missed the boat and should have challenged Howard because today he may be PM.

It has been done now, the Liberals have lost and Labor has won. Rudd will be wearing his L-plates, treading lightly but with such a comprehensive majority in the Lower House and every state and territory being governed by Labor, he almost has free reign over Australian politics.

Nelson or Turnbull will become the face of the Liberals, two contrasting moderately-conservative characters whose best job would be to draw a line under the Howard years and move on. Don’t mope around or defend the failed policies that did not get the Howard Government re-elected but put pressure on the Government and quickly re-unify.

Our Prime-Minister elect and Labor were in a mess only twelve months ago, now they prepare to take their seats in Government and lead the nation.

Politics is just that and within parties it is even worse. Keep your friends close but your enemy’s closer is something that the new Liberal leader must do because there is a former Treasurer sitting on your back bench and here is your warning, never disregard Peter Costello.

Costello is considering his future and says he will retire at the next federal election. I wouldn’t bank on that, Costello could still rise back to the top of the Liberal Party if he grew some courage and challenged his leader unlike his cowardly approach to the Prime Ministership.

Will it be Nelson or Turnbull?

I think Nelson will get the nod as the conservatives will think Turnbull is still too radical for now but don’t expect him to be the opposition leader at the next federal election.

Labor went through Kim Beazley, Simon Crean, Kim Beazley again, Mark Latham, Kim Beazley all before they found Kevin 07 and even he, Mr Rudd was not guaranteed leader amongst an unstable party.

It’s amazing what power and Governance can do for unification, if only there was no-infighting we would probably have a change of Government at every election.